At least four Republicans won seats previously held by Democrats, erasing the Democrats’ two-vote margin, and a handful of close races remain that could widen that Republican advantage. It means Republicans will chair every Senate committee, including those that oversee funding for science agencies, and that Senator Chuck Schumer (D–NY) will give way to either Senator John Thune (R–SD) or Senator John Cornyn (R–TX) as majority leader. That matters, as the majority leader sets the body’s agenda by deciding which bills can come up for a floor vote. A Republican majority in the Senate should provide an easier route to confirmation of Trump’s nominees for senior science positions.
Favored to retain the House of Representatives
[ihc-hide-content ihc_mb_type=”block” ihc_mb_who=”unreg” ihc_mb_template=”3″ ]With more than a dozen races still undecided, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R–LA) may not add appreciably to his current four-member Republican majority. But that still would give him the power to set the House’s agenda. One notable loss for the Democrats is Representative Matt Cartwright (D–PA), who in 2021–22 led the spending panel that sets the budget for several science agencies before Democrats lost their majority.
Outgoing Congress can still have a say
The biggest piece of unfinished business for lawmakers during the so-called lame-duck session that starts next week is finalizing the federal budget for the 2025 fiscal year. Agency spending is currently frozen at this year’s levels under a continuing resolution that expires on 20 December. House spending panels have proposed deep cuts in many civilian science agencies, along with sharp increases for the military, whereas the Democrat-led Senate has been more supportive of research. A final budget agreement would need to reconcile those differences. But Trump’s victory and the congressional results could mean Republicans have little incentive to compromise with Democrats before Congress adjourns at the end of the year. Instead, they are likely to keep spending frozen at current levels and delay a final budget deal until after Trump takes office on 20 January 2025.
Republicans want to change the CHIPS and Science Act
President Joe Biden’s landmark 2022 legislation to restore the sagging US semiconductor industry also contains a pledge to double the budget of the National Science Foundation (NSF) in five years. Although the bill enjoyed bipartisan Senate support, House Republicans objected to provisions dealing with environmental justice and broadening participation in science, and last week Johnson said he wanted to repeal the law. He quickly backtracked and said he meant only pruning it of those provisions, but science advocates are worried the new Congress could weaken the bill while the promise of a bigger NSF remains unfulfilled.
Trump downplays the threat of climate change
This year is very likely to be the warmest in human history. But even as global temperatures keep rising, climate activists expect Trump to reprise his earlier policies that they see as ignoring the threat. That includes downplaying the economic damage caused by global warming, which helps justify all manner of federal regulations. Previous court challenges to such steps have met with varying degrees of success.
Trump has vowed to drop out of the nonbinding Paris Climate Agreement, repeating a step taken during his previous term, which would remove the country from an obligation to report its greenhouse gas emissions and targets. He’s also promised to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration’s signature climate law, which is pouring billions of dollars into renewable energy.
But such a repeal is unlikely to pass even a U.S. Congress fully under Republican control, analysts say. “Trump heading back to the White House won’t be a death knell to the clean energy transition that has rapidly picked up pace these last 4 years,” Dan Lashof, U.S. director of the World Resources Institute, said in a statement. “Most U.S. state, local, and private sector leaders are committed to charging ahead.”
The Trump administration could find other ways to interfere with climate science, as it did during its first term when it tried to downplay the National Climate Assessment, which evaluates climate impacts in the United States. Late in his first term, Trump also appointed prominent climate contrarians to several influential oversight roles.
Congress wants tougher measures against China
There’s consensus in Congress on the need to get tougher on China to counter its growing economic, scientific, and military clout. But research advocates fear having Trump in the White House could encourage legislators to take more extreme measures, including all but eliminating the decades of research collaborations between the two superpowers. The lame-duck session could see Congress enact a ban on any institution with China ties receiving any support from the Department of Defense, an important source of research funding for dozens of universities. Trump could also issue an executive order restoring a Department of Justice campaign to combat economic espionage, called the China Initiative. The Biden administration ended the initiative in 2022, noting it was widely seen as discriminating against Chinese-born scientists at U.S. universities who have maintained ties with Chinese colleagues.
However, some research advocates see a slight chance that a Trump administration will use anti-Chinese sentiment to bolster international scientific collaborations with countries considered allies. “If China is our enemy, then we should be doing more with our friends to prevent them from overtaking us,” the lobbyist says.
Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in science are at risk
The legislator slated to lead the Senate Commerce and Science Committee, Senator Ted Cruz (R–TX), has declared war on NSF’s initiatives to increase diversity in science. Advocates see his recent report criticizing DEI as adding fuel to Republican claims, led by Vice President-elect JD Vance, that universities are hotbeds of radicalism out of step with U.S. values. Cruz, who easily won reelection on Tuesday, has also been a thorn in the side of Democratic efforts to combat climate change, and research advocates are fearful that his first-ever chairmanship of an important committee will give him an even bigger platform on those issues.
Biomedical and health policy will be under scrutiny
Some researchers are wondering whether Trump and Congress will restructure the National Institutes of Health, the nation’s single largest funder of basic research. (Read Jocelyn Kaiser’s story on the outlook.)
Republicans might curtail open access
Trump’s election could influence a debate over whether the US government should adopt a policy allowing scientists and the public to read paywalled research articles for free. In 2020, Trump’s administration was reported to be on the verge of issuing a “public access” policy requiring that peer-reviewed manuscripts produced by most federal grantees be immediately free to read on publication, but Trump left office without taking that step. In 2022, the Biden administration issued a similar guidance that takes effect at the end of 2025. But in 2023 and again this year, Republican members of Congress proposed legislative language blocking its implementation, and it remains to be seen what stance Trump will take on the issue during a second term. [/ihc-hide-content]
